As-of-round backtestno look-ahead · vs 1/3 uniform baseline
BEATS BASELINE
2025/26: PASS — beats uniform on all three scores over 280 matches (Brier 0.525 vs 0.667; RPS 0.189 vs 0.278; log-loss 0.898 vs 1.099).
| Score | Model | Uniform | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brier | 0.525 | 0.667 | 21.2% |
| RPS | 0.189 | 0.278 | 32.1% |
| Log-loss | 0.898 | 1.099 | 18.3% |
scope: 2025/26 · 280 matches · ratings frozen at the eve of each match · lower is better for all three scores.
also runnable: dotnet run --project src/Ohms.PremierLeague.Ingest -- backtest-pl 2024
also runnable: dotnet run --project src/Ohms.PremierLeague.Ingest -- backtest-pl 2024