Value boardmodel vs de-vigged market · half-Kelly
| # | Match | Selection | Edge | EV | Best price | Kelly | Tier | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LEI v TOT
Sat 11 Apr 14:00 |
TOT WIN | 11.3% | 19.7% | 2.06 bet365_syn | 2.73% | Watch | ELO GAP -111 TOTMODEL 0.58 vs MARKET 0.47AWAY |
| 2 | IPS v BOU
Sat 14 Mar 16:00 |
BOU WIN | 11.3% | 18.3% | 1.98 bet365_syn | 2.74% | Watch | ELO GAP -118 BOUMODEL 0.60 vs MARKET 0.48AWAY |
| 3 | SOU v IPS
Sat 18 Apr 12:00 |
IPS WIN | 10.4% | 17.8% | 2.04 ladbrokes_syn | 2.72% | Watch | ELO GAP -109 IPSMODEL 0.58 vs MARKET 0.47AWAY |
| 4 | CHE v ARS
Sat 4 Apr 16:00 |
ARS WIN | 10.6% | 16.6% | 1.96 bet365_syn | 2.70% | Watch | ELO GAP -117 ARSMODEL 0.59 vs MARKET 0.49AWAY |
| 5 | FUL v LEI
Sat 7 Mar 16:00 |
FUL WIN | 9.9% | 16.8% | 2.06 ladbrokes_syn | 2.64% | Watch | ELO GAP +30 FULMODEL 0.57 vs MARKET 0.47HOME |
| 6 | NOT v CRY
Sat 2 May 16:00 |
CRY WIN | 12.2% | 18.3% | 1.86 pinnacle | 2.86% | Watch | ELO GAP -136 CRYMODEL 0.64 vs MARKET 0.51AWAY |
| 7 | WOL v CRY
Sat 18 Apr 12:00 |
WOL WIN | 9.0% | 16.8% | 2.28 ladbrokes_syn | 2.34% | Watch | ELO GAP +13 WOLMODEL 0.51 vs MARKET 0.42HOME |
| 8 | BHA v WOL
Sat 25 Apr 12:00 |
BHA WIN | 13.9% | 21.4% | 1.81 ladbrokes_syn | 2.92% | Watch | ELO GAP +66 BHAMODEL 0.67 vs MARKET 0.53HOME |
| 9 | LIV v CHE
Sat 14 Mar 16:00 |
LIV WIN | 12.7% | 19.6% | 1.85 ladbrokes_syn | 2.95% | Watch | ELO GAP +57 LIVMODEL 0.65 vs MARKET 0.52HOME |
| 10 | EVE v CHE
Sat 28 Mar 16:00 |
CHE WIN | 13.4% | 19.5% | 1.74 pinnacle | 3.11% | Watch | ELO GAP -165 CHEMODEL 0.69 vs MARKET 0.55AWAY |
| 11 | TOT v MCI
Sat 4 Apr 14:00 |
MCI WIN | 14.9% | 21.8% | 1.77 ladbrokes_syn | 2.76% | Watch | ELO GAP -166 MCIMODEL 0.69 vs MARKET 0.54AWAY |
| 12 | NOT v SOU
Sat 28 Mar 12:00 |
NOT WIN | 12.4% | 18.7% | 1.81 ladbrokes_syn | 3.05% | Watch | ELO GAP +61 NOTMODEL 0.66 vs MARKET 0.53HOME |
| 13 | TOT v FUL
Sat 18 Apr 14:00 |
TOT WIN | 14.2% | 19.5% | 1.69 bet365_syn | 3.02% | Watch | ELO GAP +81 TOTMODEL 0.71 vs MARKET 0.56HOME |
| 14 | BHA v CRY
Sat 4 Apr 14:00 |
BHA WIN | 12.6% | 16.7% | 1.66 pinnacle | 3.28% | Watch | ELO GAP +79 BHAMODEL 0.70 vs MARKET 0.58HOME |
| 15 | CRY v MCI
Sat 7 Mar 12:00 |
MCI WIN | 13.0% | 16.5% | 1.62 bet365_syn | 3.28% | Watch | ELO GAP -188 MCIMODEL 0.72 vs MARKET 0.59AWAY |
| 16 | WOL v AVL
Sat 28 Feb 14:00 |
AVL WIN | 11.6% | 15.2% | 1.66 bet365_syn | 3.29% | Watch | ELO GAP -170 AVLMODEL 0.69 vs MARKET 0.58AWAY |
| 17 | FUL v NOT
Sat 25 Apr 16:00 |
FUL WIN | 12.3% | 15.5% | 1.65 bet365_syn | 3.19% | Watch | ELO GAP +78 FULMODEL 0.70 vs MARKET 0.58HOME |
| 18 | BOU v FUL
Sat 4 Apr 16:00 |
BOU WIN | 14.3% | 19.3% | 1.64 bet365_syn | 3.20% | Watch | ELO GAP +89 BOUMODEL 0.73 vs MARKET 0.58HOME |
| 19 | TOT v WHU
Sat 14 Mar 16:00 |
TOT WIN | 12.0% | 15.3% | 1.66 ladbrokes_syn | 3.18% | Watch | ELO GAP +75 TOTMODEL 0.69 vs MARKET 0.57HOME |
| 20 | WOL v LEI
Sat 4 Apr 12:00 |
WOL WIN | 13.7% | 16.9% | 1.55 bet365_syn | 3.51% | Watch | ELO GAP +102 WOLMODEL 0.75 vs MARKET 0.62HOME |
| 21 | MCI v BHA
Sat 14 Mar 14:00 |
MCI WIN | 14.2% | 18.3% | 1.54 ladbrokes_syn | 3.61% | Watch | ELO GAP +109 MCIMODEL 0.77 vs MARKET 0.63HOME |
| 22 | AVL v MNU
Sat 21 Mar 14:00 |
AVL WIN | 10.6% | 13.5% | 1.66 ladbrokes_syn | 3.21% | Watch | ELO GAP +71 AVLMODEL 0.68 vs MARKET 0.58HOME |
| 23 | EVE v AVL
Sat 11 Apr 14:00 |
AVL WIN | 12.6% | 15.5% | 1.57 bet365_syn | 3.49% | Watch | ELO GAP -201 AVLMODEL 0.74 vs MARKET 0.61AWAY |
| 24 | WHU v BRE
Sat 2 May 16:00 |
WHU WIN | 8.2% | 16.5% | 2.48 ladbrokes_syn | 2.13% | Watch | MODEL 0.47 vs MARKET 0.39HOME |
| 25 | EVE v ARS
Sat 21 Mar 14:00 |
ARS WIN | 14.9% | 17.3% | 1.47 bet365_syn | 3.61% | Watch | ELO GAP -282 ARSMODEL 0.80 vs MARKET 0.65AWAY |
| 26 | SOU v WOL
Sat 14 Mar 12:00 |
WOL WIN | 12.0% | 14.6% | 1.54 pinnacle | 3.73% | Watch | ELO GAP -210 WOLMODEL 0.74 vs MARKET 0.62AWAY |
| 27 | SOU v BHA
Sat 28 Feb 14:00 |
BHA WIN | 14.9% | 17.6% | 1.48 pinnacle | 3.57% | Watch | ELO GAP -276 BHAMODEL 0.79 vs MARKET 0.65AWAY |
| 28 | IPS v LIV
Sat 18 Apr 14:00 |
LIV WIN | 13.5% | 15.5% | 1.44 ladbrokes_syn | 4.14% | Watch | ELO GAP -291 LIVMODEL 0.80 vs MARKET 0.67AWAY |
| 29 | WOL v WHU
Sat 7 Mar 12:00 |
WOL WIN | 10.1% | 12.7% | 1.68 bet365_syn | 3.07% | Watch | ELO GAP +66 WOLMODEL 0.67 vs MARKET 0.57HOME |
| 30 | LEI v CRY
Sat 14 Mar 12:00 |
CRY WIN | 8.3% | 14.3% | 2.17 pinnacle | 2.29% | Watch | ELO GAP -89 CRYMODEL 0.53 vs MARKET 0.44AWAY |
| 31 | WHU v NOT
Sat 21 Mar 16:00 |
WHU WIN | 10.1% | 11.9% | 1.57 ladbrokes_syn | 3.41% | Watch | ELO GAP +83 WHUMODEL 0.71 vs MARKET 0.61HOME |
| 32 | IPS v TOT
Sat 28 Mar 14:00 |
TOT WIN | 8.6% | 12.1% | 1.94 bet365_syn | 2.37% | Watch | ELO GAP -109 TOTMODEL 0.58 vs MARKET 0.49AWAY |
| 33 | CRY v FUL
Sat 21 Mar 12:00 |
CRY WIN | 9.0% | 10.6% | 1.70 ladbrokes_syn | 2.71% | Watch | ELO GAP +59 CRYMODEL 0.65 vs MARKET 0.56HOME |
| 34 | LEI v BOU
Sat 28 Mar 16:00 |
BOU WIN | 8.6% | 12.3% | 1.87 bet365_syn | 2.61% | Watch | ELO GAP -119 BOUMODEL 0.60 vs MARKET 0.51AWAY |
| 35 | BOU v MCI
Sat 21 Mar 16:00 |
MCI WIN | 15.0% | 23.4% | 1.83 bet365_syn | 2.70% | Watch | ELO GAP -157 MCIMODEL 0.67 vs MARKET 0.52AWAY |
| 36 | FUL v BHA
Sat 28 Mar 14:00 |
BHA WIN | 8.7% | 10.5% | 1.73 bet365_syn | 2.62% | Watch | ELO GAP -138 BHAMODEL 0.64 vs MARKET 0.55AWAY |
| 37 | AVL v CHE
Sat 18 Apr 14:00 |
AVL WIN | 8.1% | 11.8% | 1.91 ladbrokes_syn | 2.48% | Watch | ELO GAP +36 AVLMODEL 0.59 vs MARKET 0.50HOME |
| 38 | IPS v IPS
Sat 25 Apr 14:00 |
IPS WIN | 7.5% | 14.6% | 2.43 bet365_syn | 2.03% | Watch | MODEL 0.47 vs MARKET 0.40HOME |
| 39 | LIV v MCI
Sat 25 Apr 16:00 |
LIV WIN | 7.5% | 11.5% | 2.14 ladbrokes_syn | 2.02% | Watch | ELO GAP +16 LIVMODEL 0.52 vs MARKET 0.45HOME |
| 40 | TOT v BRE
Sat 28 Feb 12:00 |
TOT WIN | 15.1% | 23.4% | 1.78 ladbrokes_syn | 2.86% | Watch | ELO GAP +75 TOTMODEL 0.69 vs MARKET 0.54HOME |
| 41 | WHU v BOU
Sat 28 Feb 16:00 |
BOU WIN | 6.4% | 10.3% | 2.15 bet365_syn | 1.92% | Watch | ELO GAP -84 BOUMODEL 0.51 vs MARKET 0.45AWAY |
| 42 | CHE v MNU
Sat 7 Mar 16:00 |
CHE WIN | 6.4% | 8.1% | 1.86 pinnacle | 2.02% | Watch | ELO GAP +35 CHEMODEL 0.58 vs MARKET 0.52HOME |
| 43 | MNU v FUL
Sat 2 May 12:00 |
MNU WIN | 15.4% | 16.4% | 1.36 bet365_syn | 4.14% | Watch | ELO GAP +170 MNUMODEL 0.86 vs MARKET 0.70HOME |
| 44 | BOU v BHA
Sat 18 Apr 16:00 |
BHA WIN | 5.0% | 9.8% | 2.66 bet365_syn | 1.38% | Watch | ELO GAP -48 BHAMODEL 0.41 vs MARKET 0.36AWAY |
| 45 | SOU v MNU
Sat 4 Apr 12:00 |
MNU WIN | 15.4% | 18.2% | 1.46 ladbrokes_syn | 3.56% | Watch | ELO GAP -308 MNUMODEL 0.81 vs MARKET 0.65AWAY |
| 46 | WHU v LIV
Sat 4 Apr 16:00 |
LIV WIN | 15.5% | 19.9% | 1.53 ladbrokes_syn | 3.34% | Watch | ELO GAP -257 LIVMODEL 0.78 vs MARKET 0.63AWAY |
| 47 | TOT v BHA
Sat 2 May 14:00 |
BHA WIN | 4.9% | 7.7% | 2.46 bet365_syn | 1.24% | Watch | ELO GAP -57 BHAMODEL 0.44 vs MARKET 0.39AWAY |
| 48 | BRE v EVE
Sat 4 Apr 12:00 |
EVE WIN | 4.4% | 9.1% | 2.94 bet365_syn | 1.13% | Watch | ELO GAP -34 EVEMODEL 0.37 vs MARKET 0.33AWAY |
| 49 | BRE v NOT
Sat 7 Mar 12:00 |
BRE WIN | 15.8% | 22.8% | 1.72 bet365_syn | 2.70% | Watch | ELO GAP +83 BREMODEL 0.71 vs MARKET 0.56HOME |
| 50 | SOU v CHE
Sat 2 May 12:00 |
CHE WIN | 15.8% | 19.0% | 1.45 pinnacle | 3.61% | Watch | ELO GAP -343 CHEMODEL 0.82 vs MARKET 0.66AWAY |
| 51 | MNU v MCI
Sat 18 Apr 12:00 |
MCI WIN | 5.3% | 7.4% | 2.18 ladbrokes_syn | 1.43% | Watch | ELO GAP -76 MCIMODEL 0.49 vs MARKET 0.44AWAY |
| 52 | BRE v LIV
Sat 21 Mar 12:00 |
LIV WIN | 15.9% | 19.8% | 1.53 bet365_syn | 3.13% | Watch | ELO GAP -256 LIVMODEL 0.78 vs MARKET 0.62AWAY |
| 53 | IPS v CRY
Sat 28 Feb 12:00 |
CRY WIN | 5.6% | 7.2% | 2.05 pinnacle | 1.54% | Watch | ELO GAP -88 CRYMODEL 0.52 vs MARKET 0.47AWAY |
| 54 | NOT v AVL
Sat 14 Mar 14:00 |
AVL WIN | 15.9% | 18.7% | 1.46 bet365_syn | 3.40% | Watch | ELO GAP -319 AVLMODEL 0.81 vs MARKET 0.65AWAY |
| 55 | LEI v MNU
Sat 25 Apr 12:00 |
MNU WIN | 16.1% | 22.6% | 1.67 pinnacle | 2.72% | Watch | ELO GAP -200 MNUMODEL 0.73 vs MARKET 0.57AWAY |
| 56 | MNU v EVE
Sat 28 Feb 14:00 |
MNU WIN | 16.1% | 20.0% | 1.49 bet365_syn | 3.29% | Watch | ELO GAP +130 MNUMODEL 0.81 vs MARKET 0.64HOME |
| 57 | WOL v IPS
Sat 21 Mar 12:00 |
WOL WIN | 16.2% | 22.5% | 1.63 ladbrokes_syn | 2.83% | Watch | ELO GAP +100 WOLMODEL 0.75 vs MARKET 0.59HOME |
| 58 | IPS v EVE
Sat 2 May 14:00 |
EVE WIN | 4.9% | 7.0% | 2.27 bet365_syn | 1.29% | Watch | ELO GAP -69 EVEMODEL 0.47 vs MARKET 0.42AWAY |
| 59 | BRE v AVL
Sat 25 Apr 14:00 |
AVL WIN | 16.5% | 22.1% | 1.59 ladbrokes_syn | 2.83% | Watch | ELO GAP -235 AVLMODEL 0.77 vs MARKET 0.60AWAY |
| 60 | BRE v ARS
Sat 18 Apr 12:00 |
ARS WIN | 16.6% | 20.2% | 1.48 bet365_syn | 3.14% | Watch | ELO GAP -316 ARSMODEL 0.81 vs MARKET 0.65AWAY |
| 61 | LIV v AVL
Sat 28 Mar 14:00 |
LIV WIN | 5.3% | 6.4% | 1.98 pinnacle | 1.50% | Watch | ELO GAP +21 LIVMODEL 0.54 vs MARKET 0.48HOME |
| 62 | IPS v BRE
Sat 28 Mar 12:00 |
BRE WIN | 3.9% | 7.0% | 2.87 bet365_syn | 0.93% | Watch | ELO GAP -35 BREMODEL 0.37 vs MARKET 0.33AWAY |
| 63 | CHE v WHU
Sat 25 Apr 16:00 |
CHE WIN | 17.0% | 18.1% | 1.34 bet365_syn | 3.69% | Watch | ELO GAP +200 CHEMODEL 0.88 vs MARKET 0.71HOME |
| 64 | BHA v IPS
Sat 7 Mar 14:00 |
BHA WIN | 17.0% | 19.3% | 1.40 bet365_syn | 3.31% | Watch | ELO GAP +167 BHAMODEL 0.85 vs MARKET 0.68HOME |
| 65 | BOU v SOU
Sat 7 Mar 16:00 |
BOU WIN | 17.4% | 18.7% | 1.32 bet365_syn | 3.71% | Watch | ELO GAP +227 BOUMODEL 0.90 vs MARKET 0.73HOME |
| 66 | NOT v CHE
Sat 28 Feb 16:00 |
CHE WIN | 17.5% | 22.9% | 1.54 ladbrokes_syn | 2.61% | Watch | ELO GAP -283 CHEMODEL 0.80 vs MARKET 0.62AWAY |
| 67 | ARS v CRY
Sat 28 Mar 12:00 |
ARS WIN | 17.6% | 18.9% | 1.30 ladbrokes_syn | 3.84% | Watch | ELO GAP +263 ARSMODEL 0.91 vs MARKET 0.74HOME |
| 68 | MCI v WOL
Sat 28 Mar 12:00 |
MCI WIN | 17.7% | 20.5% | 1.40 ladbrokes_syn | 3.02% | Watch | ELO GAP +175 MCIMODEL 0.86 vs MARKET 0.68HOME |
| 69 | EVE v LIV
Sat 7 Mar 14:00 |
LIV WIN | 17.8% | 25.6% | 1.66 ladbrokes_syn | 2.23% | Watch | ELO GAP -222 LIVMODEL 0.76 vs MARKET 0.58AWAY |